Prediction of the COVID-19 transmission: a case study of Pakistan.

The world has suffered a lot from COVID-19 and is still on the verge of a new outbreak. The infected regions of coronavirus have been classified into four categories: SIRD model, (1) suspected, (2) infected, (3) recovered, and (4) deaths, where the COVID-19 transmission is evaluated using a stochastic model. A study in Pakistan modeled COVID-19 data using stochastic models like PRM and NBR. The findings were evaluated based on these models, as the country faces its third wave of the virus. Our study predicts COVID-19 casualties in Pakistan using a count data model. We've used a Poisson process, SIRD-type framework, and a stochastic model to find the solution. We took data from NCOC (National Command and Operation Center) website to choose the best prediction model based on all provinces of Pakistan, On the values of log L and AIC criteria. The best model among PRM and NBR is NBR because when over-dispersion happens; NBR is the best model for modelling the total suspected, infected, and recovered COVID-19 occurrences in Pakistan as it has the maximum log L and smallest AIC of the other count regression model. It was also observed that the active and critical cases positively and significantly affect COVID-19-related deaths in Pakistan using the NBR model.

L-Moments and Calibration-Based Estimators for Variance Parameter

The subject of variance estimation is one of the most important topics in statistics. It has been clarified by many different research studies due to its various applications in the human and natural sciences. Different variance estimators are built based on traditional moments that are especially influenced by the existence of extreme values. In this paper, with the presence of extreme values, we proposed some new calibration estimators for variance based on L-moments under double-stratified random sampling. A simulation study with COVID-19 data is performed to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed estimators. All results indicate that the proposed estimators are often superior and highly efficient compared to the existing traditional estimator.